A renewable energy boom

Emissions related to energy use, things are on track to increase by just 1% this year thanks to a boom in wind and solar power.

For months, there was fear among energy observers that 2022 would turn into a carbon bomb for the planet. Then came the emergence of renewable energy to defuse this planetary bomb.

Global emissions of carbon dioxide related to energy use are on track to increase 1% this year, the International Energy Agency said. That’s significantly less than what many observers expected earlier this year, when global natural gas prices prompted many countries to turn to coal instead.

Although coal consumption has increased, the impact of emissions has been largely offset by growth in renewables, the IEA said. The agency found that growth in renewables could avoid 600 million tonnes of additional CO2 emissions, or slightly less than the 646 million tonnes of CO2 produced by Germany last year.

In a statement, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said the emissions projections are less than some people worry and a sign that decarbonization policies are driving structural change. Plus, those changes are set to accelerate thanks to major clean energy policy plans that have moved forward around the world in recent months, he added.

The growth of global emissions had been tapering off before the onset of Covid-19. Since then, the world has been fluctuating, up and down, with a drop in emissions in 2020, followed by a nearly 5 percent recovery in 2021.

Many observers predict that the trend will continue as the economy continues to recover in early 2022, with higher energy demand. After Russia invaded Ukraine, there was a domino effect in global energy markets.

Europe has hit on natural gas to replace Russian gas imports, sending LNG prices soaring; Higher LNG prices have prompted some Asian countries to turn to coal, which has boosted demand for the carbon-intensive fuel amid investment in new fields. Coal prices, therefore, have hit record highs in recent months.

The world energy crisis has been exacerbated by droughts in China and Europe, limiting hydroelectricity production in those regions; and maintenance problems with the French nuclear fleet.

Two factors have helped the world avoid higher emissions growth this year. Covid-19 in China has hampered economic growth, lower demand for coal and oil. China is the world’s top CO2 polluter, accounting for 11.1 billion tonnes of the 36.4 billion tonnes emitted in 2021, according to the global carbon project.

Renewable energy, led by wind and solar power, has also developed its own set of uses. The IEA predicts that renewables will add 700 Terawatt hours this year. To put that number in the balance: Total Canadian electricity generation is 641 TWH in 2021, according to BP PLC.

Global emissions are likely to be high in the coming years, with decarbonization trends running at a similar rate to economic growth, said Zeke Hausfather, a climate researcher at payments processing firm Stripe. . The rate of decarbonization could eventually outpace economic growth, as technologies such as electric vehicles and heat pumps become even more competitive, he said.

Simply peaking global emissions is the first and easiest step on the road to tackling climate change, he said. But, he added, we need to get emissions from zero, which is much harder.